Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) is undervalued and NRG Energy Inc (NRG) is slightly overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HNRG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +50%, against -16% for NRG.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $23.48; the price of $11.66 is 50% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $85.60; the price of $99.38 is 16% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 23/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | HNRG | NRG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $11.66 | $99.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.48 | $85.60 |
| Margin of safety | +50% | -16% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (10/12) | 23/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $550M | $20.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.7% | 27.9% |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | 5.5% |
| Net margin | -0.2% | 2.4% |
| Return on equity | -0.6% | 23.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 4.83 |
| P/E | 563.3x | 26.3x |
| Forward P/E | 49.6x | 9.2x |
| P/B | 2.9x | 5.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.9% |