Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is overvalued and Marriott International Inc (MAR) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MAR is the closer of the two: -36%, against -106% for HLT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $149.72; the price of $308.44 is 106% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 72/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $256.77; the price of $348.06 is 36% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | HLT | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $308.44 | $348.06 |
| Intrinsic value | $149.72 | $256.77 |
| Margin of safety | -106% | -36% |
| Leak Score | 72/100 (8/12) | 63/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $69.4B | $90.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.7% | 19.9% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 15.7% |
| Net margin | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| P/E | 45.3x | 36.1x |
| Forward P/E | 29.7x | 26.6x |
| Dividend yield | 0.2% | 0.8% |