Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is overvalued and Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR (IHG) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. IHG is the closer of the two: -36%, against -106% for HLT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $149.72; the price of $308.44 is 106% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 72/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $113.93; the price of $154.85 is 36% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 44/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | HLT | IHG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $308.44 | $154.85 |
| Intrinsic value | $149.72 | $113.93 |
| Margin of safety | -106% | -36% |
| Leak Score | 72/100 (8/12) | 44/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $69.4B | $22.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.7% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| Net margin | 12.7% | 13.4% |
| P/E | 45.3x | 33.0x |
| Forward P/E | 29.7x | 23.6x |
| Dividend yield | 0.2% | 1.3% |