Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is overvalued and H World Group Limited ADR (HTHT) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HTHT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +11%, against -106% for HLT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $149.72; the price of $308.44 is 106% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 72/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $48.85; the price of $43.33 is 11% below that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HLT | HTHT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $308.44 | $43.33 |
| Intrinsic value | $149.72 | $48.85 |
| Margin of safety | -106% | +11% |
| Leak Score | 72/100 (8/12) | 51/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $69.4B | $13.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.7% | 19.0% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 27.3% |
| Net margin | 12.7% | 18.9% |
| Return on equity | — | 38.2% |
| Debt to equity | — | 2.43 |
| P/E | 45.3x | 19.6x |
| Forward P/E | 29.7x | 14.3x |
| P/B | — | 6.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.2% | 4.8% |