Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) is slightly undervalued and Timken Co (TKR) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HLMN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +15%, against -24% for TKR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $8.56; the price of $7.25 is 15% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $93.09; the price of $115.52 is 24% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HLMN | TKR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $7.25 | $115.52 |
| Intrinsic value | $8.56 | $93.09 |
| Margin of safety | +15% | -24% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (9/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $1.4B | $8.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.5% | 5.5% |
| Operating margin | 6.6% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 2.6% | 5.4% |
| Return on equity | 3.4% | 8.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| P/E | 35.0x | 31.3x |
| Forward P/E | 10.5x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 1.2x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.2% |