Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) is slightly undervalued and Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) is slightly overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HLMN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +15%, against -19% for SWK.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $8.56; the price of $7.25 is 15% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $77.17; the price of $92.13 is 19% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | HLMN | SWK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $7.25 | $92.13 |
| Intrinsic value | $8.56 | $77.17 |
| Margin of safety | +15% | -19% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (9/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $1.4B | $13.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 6.6% | 9.2% |
| Net margin | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| Return on equity | 3.4% | 6.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| P/E | 35.0x | 22.5x |
| Forward P/E | 10.5x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 1.2x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.6% |