HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA) is undervalued and PACS Group Inc (PACS) is slightly overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HCA trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +35%, against -18% for PACS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $669.90; the price of $438.12 is 35% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 7 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $35.24; the price of $41.53 is 18% above that value, and 69% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HCA | PACS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $438.12 | $41.53 |
| Intrinsic value | $669.90 | $35.24 |
| Margin of safety | +35% | -18% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (7/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $94.9B | $6.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.0% | 45.9% |
| Operating margin | 15.5% | 7.4% |
| Net margin | 8.8% | 4.8% |
| Return on equity | — | 28.1% |
| Debt to equity | — | 3.07 |
| P/E | 14.7x | 24.9x |
| Forward P/E | 13.7x | 15.9x |
| P/B | — | 5.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | — |