Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) is overvalued and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. HLT is the closer of the two: -106%, against -270% for H.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $42.64; the price of $157.80 is 270% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $149.72; the price of $308.44 is 106% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 72/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | H | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $157.80 | $308.44 |
| Intrinsic value | $42.64 | $149.72 |
| Margin of safety | -270% | -106% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 72/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $14.9B | $69.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 27.7% | 22.7% |
| Operating margin | 7.5% | 23.4% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 12.7% |
| Return on equity | 2.3% | — |
| Debt to equity | 1.36 | — |
| P/E | 195.7x | 45.3x |
| Forward P/E | 32.5x | 29.7x |
| P/B | 4.5x | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% | 0.2% |