General Mills Inc (GIS) is overvalued and Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. KHC is the closer of the two: -67%, against -1087% for GIS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $2.99; the price of $35.45 is 1087% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 23/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Its through-the-cycle earnings (12.8% median margin), capitalised at 6.9% with no growth, values the shares at $14.36; the price of $24.00 is 67% above that value.
Leak Score 23/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | GIS | KHC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $35.45 | $24.00 |
| Intrinsic value | $2.99 | $14.36 |
| Margin of safety | -1087% | -67% |
| Leak Score | 23/100 (8/12) | 23/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $19.0B | $28.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| Operating margin | 15.3% | 17.1% |
| Net margin | -0.5% | -13.6% |
| Return on equity | -1.1% | -8.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.89 | 0.53 |
| Forward P/E | 11.1x | 11.6x |
| P/B | 2.6x | 0.8x |
| Dividend yield | 6.9% | 6.7% |