Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) is overvalued and Merck & Co Inc (MRK) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. GILD is the closer of the two: -37%, against -205% for MRK.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.56; the price of $152.67 is 37% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.49; the price of $150.91 is 205% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $152.67 | $150.91 |
| Intrinsic value | $111.56 | $49.49 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | -205% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (9/12) | 40/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $189.3B | $372.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.6% | 9.3% |
| Operating margin | 39.0% | 18.8% |
| Net margin | -10.6% | 4.8% |
| Return on equity | -20.6% | 7.0% |
| Debt to equity | 2.22 | 1.29 |
| P/E | — | 120.6x |
| Forward P/E | 15.4x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 16.0x | 8.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.1% | 2.3% |