Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) is overvalued and Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. LLY is the closer of the two: -35%, against -37% for GILD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.56; the price of $152.67 is 37% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $869.22; the price of $1170.14 is 35% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | GILD | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $152.67 | $1170.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $111.56 | $869.22 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | -35% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (9/12) | 63/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $189.3B | $1.10T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.6% | 21.6% |
| Operating margin | 39.0% | 49.7% |
| Net margin | -10.6% | 33.5% |
| Return on equity | -20.6% | 102.4% |
| Debt to equity | 2.22 | 1.62 |
| P/E | — | 39.8x |
| Forward P/E | 15.4x | 24.9x |
| P/B | 16.0x | 32.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.1% | 0.6% |