Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued and NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. GEO is the closer of the two: -11%, against -53% for NSSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.41; the price of $35.88 is 53% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 76/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | GEO | NSSC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $29.74 | $35.88 |
| Intrinsic value | $26.84 | $23.41 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -53% |
| Leak Score | 43/100 (3/12) | 76/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $3.9B | $1.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.3% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 30.5% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 21.3% |
| Return on equity | 20.1% | 23.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.08 | 0.03 |
| P/E | 14.0x | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 16.6x | 19.6x |
| P/B | 2.6x | 6.7x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.7% |