Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued and MSA Safety Inc (MSA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. GEO is the closer of the two: -11%, against -23% for MSA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $145.96; the price of $178.91 is 23% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | GEO | MSA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $29.74 | $178.91 |
| Intrinsic value | $26.84 | $145.96 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 43/100 (3/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $3.9B | $6.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.3% | 6.8% |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 22.3% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 16.1% |
| Return on equity | 20.1% | 23.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.08 | 0.46 |
| P/E | 14.0x | 22.3x |
| Forward P/E | 16.6x | 17.9x |
| P/B | 2.6x | 4.9x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.2% |