Greenbrier Cos. Inc (GBX) is undervalued and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, GBX trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +42%, against -31% for UNP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 20.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $74.56; the price of $43.04 is 42% below that value, and 44% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $209.54; the price of $274.41 is 31% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | GBX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $43.04 | $274.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $74.56 | $209.54 |
| Margin of safety | +42% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (9/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $1.3B | $163.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.0% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 28.9% |
| Return on equity | 7.0% | 39.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.19 | 1.51 |
| P/E | 12.7x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 11.0x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 0.8x | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield | 3.1% | 2.0% |