Forestar Group Inc (FOR) is undervalued and Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, FOR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +52%, against +40% for SDHC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $57.21; the price of $27.21 is 52% below that value.
Leak Score 67/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $17.38; the price of $10.35 is 40% below that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 47/100 on 5 of 12 signals
| Metric | FOR | SDHC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $27.21 | $10.35 |
| Intrinsic value | $57.21 | $17.38 |
| Margin of safety | +52% | +40% |
| Leak Score | 67/100 (9/12) | 47/100 (5/12) |
| Market cap | $1.4B | $526M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.3% | 17.0% |
| Operating margin | 14.7% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 9.9% | 0.6% |
| Return on equity | 9.6% | 8.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.44 | 0.86 |
| P/E | 8.2x | 14.5x |
| Forward P/E | 9.5x | 26.6x |
| P/B | 0.8x | 1.1x |