Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLUT) is overvalued and Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SGHC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +28%, against -488% for FLUT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% values the shares at $15.06; the price of $88.62 is 488% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $17.12; the price of $12.35 is 28% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | FLUT | SGHC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $88.62 | $12.35 |
| Intrinsic value | $15.06 | $17.12 |
| Margin of safety | -488% | +28% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $15.4B | $6.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 23.7% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 2.8% | 21.3% |
| Net margin | -4.4% | 15.2% |
| Return on equity | -8.0% | 49.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.44 | 0.13 |
| P/E | — | 17.0x |
| Forward P/E | 12.3x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 7.5x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.6% |