Fedex Corp (FDX) is fairly valued and ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ZTO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +60%, against +1% for FDX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $299.56; the price of $295.94 is 1% below that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.12; the price of $19.84 is 60% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | FDX | ZTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Undervalued |
| Price | $295.94 | $19.84 |
| Intrinsic value | $299.56 | $49.12 |
| Margin of safety | +1% | +60% |
| Leak Score | 50/100 (10/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $70.0B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.5% | 13.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.0% | 20.2% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 19.0% |
| Return on equity | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.36 | 0.35 |
| P/E | 16.0x | 10.8x |
| Forward P/E | — | 8.7x |
| P/B | 2.2x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | 4.1% |