Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) is overvalued and Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HBM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +40%, against -120% for FCX.
Values as of the 30 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.37; the price of $62.47 is 120% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 12 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $35.90; the price of $21.70 is 40% below that value, and 69% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | FCX | HBM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $62.47 | $21.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.37 | $35.90 |
| Margin of safety | -120% | +40% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (12/12) | 65/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $89.7B | $9.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.6% | 14.8% |
| Operating margin | 23.6% | 31.6% |
| Net margin | 13.3% | 27.3% |
| Return on equity | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| P/E | 26.3x | 12.8x |
| Forward P/E | 14.6x | 11.0x |
| P/B | 4.5x | 2.0x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 0.1% |