Fastenal Co (FAST) is overvalued and Watsco Inc (WSO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WSO is the closer of the two: -63%, against -126% for FAST.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.17; the price of $50.08 is 126% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $199.68; the price of $325.58 is 63% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | FAST | WSO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $50.08 | $325.58 |
| Intrinsic value | $22.17 | $199.68 |
| Margin of safety | -126% | -63% |
| Leak Score | 64/100 (10/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $57.5B | $13.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Operating margin | 20.3% | 9.0% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 6.1% |
| Return on equity | 34.3% | 15.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| P/E | 42.6x | 28.3x |
| Forward P/E | 35.6x | 24.8x |
| P/B | 14.1x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 3.8% |