Fastenal Co (FAST) is overvalued and Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, FERG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +3%, against -126% for FAST.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.17; the price of $50.08 is 126% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $228.71; the price of $221.17 is 3% below that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 5 of 12 signals
| Metric | FAST | FERG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $50.08 | $221.17 |
| Intrinsic value | $22.17 | $228.71 |
| Margin of safety | -126% | +3% |
| Leak Score | 64/100 (10/12) | 49/100 (5/12) |
| Market cap | $57.5B | $42.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 6.2% |
| Operating margin | 20.3% | 9.6% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 6.8% |
| Return on equity | 34.3% | 37.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.11 | 1.11 |
| P/E | 42.6x | 19.8x |
| Forward P/E | 35.6x | 17.6x |
| P/B | 14.1x | 6.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 1.5% |