Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) is fairly valued and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NCLH trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +71%, against -2% for EXPE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $274.56; the price of $280.70 is 2% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $48.28; the price of $14.22 is 71% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | EXPE | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Undervalued |
| Price | $280.70 | $14.22 |
| Intrinsic value | $274.56 | $48.28 |
| Margin of safety | -2% | +71% |
| Leak Score | 65/100 (10/12) | 41/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $33.7B | $6.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 23.2% | 50.3% |
| Operating margin | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| Net margin | 13.0% | 7.5% |
| Return on equity | 199.1% | 36.7% |
| Debt to equity | 4.70 | 6.21 |
| P/E | 17.5x | 9.0x |
| Forward P/E | 11.5x | 8.4x |
| P/B | 27.9x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | — |