Expeditors International Of Washington Inc (EXPD) is overvalued and United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UPS trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +6%, against -66% for EXPD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $112.78; the price of $187.51 is 66% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 73/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $101.77; the price of $95.87 is 6% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 39/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | EXPD | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $187.51 | $95.87 |
| Intrinsic value | $112.78 | $101.77 |
| Margin of safety | -66% | +6% |
| Leak Score | 73/100 (9/12) | 39/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $24.4B | $81.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Operating margin | 9.9% | 9.3% |
| Net margin | 7.6% | 5.1% |
| Return on equity | 42.6% | 29.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.27 | 1.90 |
| P/E | 27.3x | 17.9x |
| Forward P/E | 23.4x | 11.9x |
| P/B | 11.5x | 5.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 6.8% |