Ero Copper Corp (ERO) is undervalued and Southern Copper Corp (SCCO) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ERO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +29%, against -20% for SCCO.
Values as of the 30 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $40.78; the price of $29.05 is 29% below that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 58/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $147.48; the price of $177.53 is 20% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 48/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | ERO | SCCO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $29.05 | $177.53 |
| Intrinsic value | $40.78 | $147.48 |
| Margin of safety | +29% | -20% |
| Leak Score | 58/100 (11/12) | 48/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $3.0B | $149.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.4% | 10.9% |
| Operating margin | 35.9% | 58.6% |
| Net margin | 29.8% | 37.2% |
| Return on equity | 30.6% | 53.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| P/E | 9.8x | 23.6x |
| Forward P/E | 6.0x | 23.5x |
| P/B | 2.5x | 11.1x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.5% |