Ero Copper Corp (ERO) is undervalued and Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ERO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +29%, against -120% for FCX.
Values as of the 30 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $40.78; the price of $29.05 is 29% below that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 58/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.37; the price of $62.47 is 120% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | ERO | FCX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $29.05 | $62.47 |
| Intrinsic value | $40.78 | $28.37 |
| Margin of safety | +29% | -120% |
| Leak Score | 58/100 (11/12) | 37/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $3.0B | $89.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.4% | 12.6% |
| Operating margin | 35.9% | 23.6% |
| Net margin | 29.8% | 13.3% |
| Return on equity | 30.6% | 17.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| P/E | 9.8x | 26.3x |
| Forward P/E | 6.0x | 14.6x |
| P/B | 2.5x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.9% |