Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) is overvalued and HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HCA trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +35%, against -25% for ENSG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $141.03; the price of $176.32 is 25% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $669.90; the price of $438.12 is 35% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 7 of 12 signals
| Metric | ENSG | HCA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $176.32 | $438.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $141.03 | $669.90 |
| Margin of safety | -25% | +35% |
| Leak Score | 43/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (7/12) |
| Market cap | $10.3B | $94.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.5% | 8.0% |
| Operating margin | 8.8% | 15.5% |
| Net margin | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| Return on equity | 17.0% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.92 | — |
| P/E | 27.6x | 14.7x |
| Forward P/E | 20.6x | 13.7x |
| P/B | 4.2x | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.1% | 0.6% |