Elanco Animal Health Inc (ELAN) is overvalued and Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NBIX trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +29%, against -364% for ELAN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.6% values the shares at $4.94; the price of $22.93 is 364% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $201.20; the price of $142.25 is 29% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ELAN | NBIX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $22.93 | $142.25 |
| Intrinsic value | $4.94 | $201.20 |
| Margin of safety | -364% | +29% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $11.5B | $14.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.6% | 22.3% |
| Operating margin | 6.6% | 23.9% |
| Net margin | -4.0% | 20.9% |
| Return on equity | -3.0% | 22.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.59 | 0.11 |
| P/E | — | 20.8x |
| Forward P/E | 17.9x | 14.6x |
| P/B | 1.7x | 3.9x |