Ecolab Inc (ECL) is overvalued and LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LYB trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +14%, against -131% for ECL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $119.68; the price of $276.22 is 131% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 52/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $69.16; the price of $59.24 is 14% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | ECL | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $276.22 | $59.24 |
| Intrinsic value | $119.68 | $69.16 |
| Margin of safety | -131% | +14% |
| Leak Score | 52/100 (10/12) | 30/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $77.4B | $19.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.4% | 1.7% |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 12.6% | -1.1% |
| Return on equity | 21.9% | -2.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| P/E | 37.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 29.4x | 9.5x |
| P/B | 7.7x | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 5.3% |