Dow Inc (DOW) is fairly valued and Methanex Corp (MEOH) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, MEOH trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +25%, against +2% for DOW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $28.70; the price of $28.20 is 2% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 21/100 on 7 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $77.08; the price of $57.81 is 25% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | DOW | MEOH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Undervalued |
| Price | $28.20 | $57.81 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.70 | $77.08 |
| Margin of safety | +2% | +25% |
| Leak Score | 21/100 (7/12) | 41/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $20.4B | $4.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.7% | 6.3% |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 17.4% |
| Net margin | -3.2% | 2.1% |
| Return on equity | -7.9% | 3.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| P/E | — | 50.9x |
| Forward P/E | 17.3x | 10.5x |
| P/B | 1.3x | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield | 4.9% | 1.3% |