HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) is undervalued and Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, DINO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against +44% for UGP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $245.68; the price of $106.69 is 57% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.78; the price of $7.69 is 44% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | DINO | UGP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $106.69 | $7.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $245.68 | $13.78 |
| Margin of safety | +57% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $19.0B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.1% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| Return on equity | 19.4% | 21.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32 | 1.09 |
| P/E | 10.2x | 12.7x |
| Forward P/E | 9.1x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.9% | 5.2% |