HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) is undervalued and Phillips 66 (PSX) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, DINO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against -46% for PSX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $245.68; the price of $106.69 is 57% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $175.90; the price of $256.78 is 46% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | DINO | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $106.69 | $256.78 |
| Intrinsic value | $245.68 | $175.90 |
| Margin of safety | +57% | -46% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 60/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $19.0B | $102.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 5.9% |
| Net margin | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| Return on equity | 19.4% | 24.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| P/E | 10.2x | 14.6x |
| Forward P/E | 9.1x | 10.1x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 3.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.9% | 2.0% |