HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) is undervalued and Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, DINO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against -37% for MPC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $245.68; the price of $106.69 is 57% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | DINO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $106.69 | $389.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $245.68 | $284.85 |
| Margin of safety | +57% | -37% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 62/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $19.0B | $109.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.1% | 13.9% |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| Net margin | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| Return on equity | 19.4% | 47.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32 | 1.80 |
| P/E | 10.2x | 13.4x |
| Forward P/E | 9.1x | 8.5x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 5.8x |
| Dividend yield | 1.9% | 1.1% |