CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued and NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CXW is the closer of the two: -39%, against -53% for NSSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.41; the price of $35.88 is 53% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 76/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CXW | NSSC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $31.47 | $35.88 |
| Intrinsic value | $22.58 | $23.41 |
| Margin of safety | -39% | -53% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 76/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $3.1B | $1.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.0% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 9.9% | 30.5% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 21.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.8% | 23.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.03 |
| P/E | 25.1x | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 19.6x |
| P/B | 2.2x | 6.7x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.7% |