CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued and MSA Safety Inc (MSA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MSA is the closer of the two: -23%, against -39% for CXW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $145.96; the price of $178.91 is 23% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CXW | MSA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $31.47 | $178.91 |
| Intrinsic value | $22.58 | $145.96 |
| Margin of safety | -39% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $3.1B | $6.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.0% | 6.8% |
| Operating margin | 9.9% | 22.3% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 16.1% |
| Return on equity | 8.8% | 23.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.46 |
| P/E | 25.1x | 22.3x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 17.9x |
| P/B | 2.2x | 4.9x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.2% |