CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued and Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. GEO is the closer of the two: -11%, against -39% for CXW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CXW | GEO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $31.47 | $29.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $22.58 | $26.84 |
| Margin of safety | -39% | -11% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 43/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $3.1B | $3.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 9.9% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 10.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.8% | 20.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| P/E | 25.1x | 14.0x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 16.6x |
| P/B | 2.2x | 2.6x |