Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) is overvalued and Waste Connections Inc (WCN) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WCN is the closer of the two: -71%, against -980% for CWST.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $7.94; the price of $85.76 is 980% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $91.12; the price of $155.42 is 71% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CWST | WCN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $85.76 | $155.42 |
| Intrinsic value | $7.94 | $91.12 |
| Margin of safety | -980% | -71% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $5.5B | $39.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 18.9% | 11.7% |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | 17.6% |
| Net margin | 0.3% | 10.9% |
| Return on equity | 0.4% | 13.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| P/E | 958.2x | 37.5x |
| Forward P/E | 53.3x | 25.1x |
| P/B | 3.5x | 5.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.9% |