Chevron Corp (CVX) is overvalued and ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CVX is the closer of the two: -22%, against -24% for XOM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $166.49; the price of $202.41 is 22% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 53/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $128.10; the price of $158.71 is 24% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVX | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $202.41 | $158.71 |
| Intrinsic value | $166.49 | $128.10 |
| Margin of safety | -22% | -24% |
| Leak Score | 53/100 (8/12) | 68/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $399.9B | $652.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.3% | 12.7% |
| Operating margin | 13.3% | 11.3% |
| Net margin | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| Return on equity | 12.3% | 12.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| P/E | 19.4x | 20.4x |
| Forward P/E | 15.0x | 14.7x |
| P/B | 2.1x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | 3.5% | 2.6% |