Chevron Corp (CVX) is overvalued and Shell Plc ADR (SHEL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SHEL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +47%, against -22% for CVX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $166.49; the price of $202.41 is 22% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 53/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $178.19; the price of $93.93 is 47% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVX | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $202.41 | $93.93 |
| Intrinsic value | $166.49 | $178.19 |
| Margin of safety | -22% | +47% |
| Leak Score | 53/100 (8/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $399.9B | $268.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| Operating margin | 13.3% | 13.7% |
| Net margin | 9.7% | 8.8% |
| Return on equity | 12.3% | 14.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 19.4x | 10.4x |
| Forward P/E | 15.0x | 9.9x |
| P/B | 2.1x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 3.5% | 3.3% |