Chevron Corp (CVX) is overvalued and Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR (PBR) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PBR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +61%, against -25% for CVX.
Values as of the 16 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $179.79; the price of $224.99 is 25% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $66.80; the price of $26.00 is 61% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 79/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVX | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $224.99 | $26.00 |
| Intrinsic value | $179.79 | $66.80 |
| Margin of safety | -25% | +61% |
| Leak Score | 43/100 (10/12) | 79/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $444.5B | $96.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 14.3% | 11.0% |
| Operating margin | 13.3% | 34.8% |
| Net margin | 9.7% | 24.5% |
| Return on equity | 12.3% | 30.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.20 | 0.76 |
| P/E | 21.6x | 6.6x |
| Forward P/E | 15.1x | 6.5x |
| P/B | 2.3x | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield | 3.2% | 6.8% |