Carvana Co (CVNA) is overvalued and Valvoline Inc (VVV) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CVNA is the closer of the two: -45%, against -172% for VVV.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $45.06; the price of $65.40 is 45% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 57/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $10.54; the price of $28.67 is 172% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVNA | VVV |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $65.40 | $28.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.06 | $10.54 |
| Margin of safety | -45% | -172% |
| Leak Score | 57/100 (8/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $72.0B | $3.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | -6.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 17.7% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 54.5% | 28.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.44 | 4.75 |
| P/E | 30.3x | 36.3x |
| Forward P/E | 29.6x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 11.7x | 8.8x |