Carvana Co (CVNA) is overvalued and Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PAG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +0%, against -45% for CVNA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $45.06; the price of $65.40 is 45% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 57/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $210.83; the price of $209.86 sits right on that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVNA | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $65.40 | $209.86 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.06 | $210.83 |
| Margin of safety | -45% | +0% |
| Leak Score | 57/100 (8/12) | 30/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $72.0B | $13.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Return on equity | 54.5% | 15.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.44 | 1.61 |
| P/E | 30.3x | 15.4x |
| Forward P/E | 29.6x | 14.5x |
| P/B | 11.7x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.0% |