Carvana Co (CVNA) is overvalued and Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LAD trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +67%, against -45% for CVNA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $45.06; the price of $65.40 is 45% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 57/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $940.77; the price of $312.32 is 67% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVNA | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $65.40 | $312.32 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.06 | $940.77 |
| Margin of safety | -45% | +67% |
| Leak Score | 57/100 (8/12) | 41/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $72.0B | $6.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | 23.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 3.8% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| Return on equity | 54.5% | 10.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.44 | 2.59 |
| P/E | 30.3x | 10.3x |
| Forward P/E | 29.6x | 7.3x |
| P/B | 11.7x | 1.1x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.7% |