Carvana Co (CVNA) is overvalued and Carmax Inc (KMX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CVNA is the closer of the two: -45%, against -111% for KMX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $45.06; the price of $65.40 is 45% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 57/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% values the shares at $26.99; the price of $56.84 is 111% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVNA | KMX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $65.40 | $56.84 |
| Intrinsic value | $45.06 | $26.99 |
| Margin of safety | -45% | -111% |
| Leak Score | 57/100 (8/12) | 0/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $72.0B | $8.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | 6.7% |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | 2.1% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| Return on equity | 54.5% | 3.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.44 | 3.08 |
| P/E | 30.3x | 37.4x |
| Forward P/E | 29.6x | — |
| P/B | 11.7x | 1.3x |