CVR Energy Inc (CVI) is overvalued and Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CVI is the closer of the two: -21%, against -128% for VLO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $42.93; the price of $52.13 is 21% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.56; the price of $377.14 is 128% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVI | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $52.13 | $377.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $42.93 | $165.56 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -128% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 64/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $5.2B | $108.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.8% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 7.6% |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 13.9% | 29.3% |
| Debt to equity | 3.43 | 0.45 |
| P/E | 75.9x | 15.6x |
| Forward P/E | 19.1x | 9.8x |
| P/B | 10.0x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | 1.3% |