CVR Energy Inc (CVI) is overvalued and Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CVI is the closer of the two: -21%, against -37% for MPC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $42.93; the price of $52.13 is 21% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVI | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $52.13 | $389.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $42.93 | $284.85 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -37% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 62/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $5.2B | $109.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.8% | 13.9% |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 8.4% |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 5.6% |
| Return on equity | 13.9% | 47.9% |
| Debt to equity | 3.43 | 1.80 |
| P/E | 75.9x | 13.4x |
| Forward P/E | 19.1x | 8.5x |
| P/B | 10.0x | 5.8x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | 1.1% |