Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) is slightly overvalued and Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TOL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +38%, against -12% for CVCO.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $457.76; the price of $510.97 is 12% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 12 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $212.01; the price of $131.12 is 38% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 11 of 12 signals
| Metric | CVCO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $510.97 | $131.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $457.76 | $212.01 |
| Margin of safety | -12% | +38% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (12/12) | 74/100 (11/12) |
| Market cap | $3.9B | $12.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.3% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 9.6% | 14.4% |
| Net margin | 7.9% | 11.1% |
| Return on equity | 16.7% | 14.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| P/E | 22.2x | 10.5x |
| Forward P/E | 18.2x | 9.6x |
| P/B | 3.5x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.8% |