Corteva Inc (CTVA) is overvalued and Mosaic Company (MOS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CTVA is the closer of the two: -31%, against -66% for MOS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $61.32; the price of $80.34 is 31% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $14.93; the price of $24.73 is 66% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | CTVA | MOS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $80.34 | $24.73 |
| Intrinsic value | $61.32 | $14.93 |
| Margin of safety | -31% | -66% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (9/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $53.6B | $7.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.1% | 6.8% |
| Operating margin | 16.7% | 6.8% |
| Net margin | 5.7% | -5.2% |
| Return on equity | 4.3% | -5.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.19 | 0.53 |
| P/E | 53.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 19.4x | 16.9x |
| P/B | 2.1x | 0.7x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 3.5% |