CSX Corp (CSX) is overvalued and Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CSX is the closer of the two: -94%, against -98% for NSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $24.06; the price of $46.59 is 94% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 31/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $158.46; the price of $314.00 is 98% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CSX | NSC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $46.59 | $314.00 |
| Intrinsic value | $24.06 | $158.46 |
| Margin of safety | -94% | -98% |
| Leak Score | 31/100 (10/12) | 40/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $86.3B | $70.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Operating margin | 35.3% | 32.1% |
| Net margin | 22.2% | 21.0% |
| Return on equity | 24.4% | 17.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| P/E | 26.9x | 26.8x |
| Forward P/E | 20.5x | 21.9x |
| P/B | 6.1x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | 1.7% |