Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) is overvalued and Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. CSCO is the closer of the two: -101%, against -1899% for LITE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $53.03; the price of $106.44 is 101% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 44/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $47.31; the price of $945.67 is 1899% above that value.
Leak Score 41/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | CSCO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $106.44 | $945.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $53.03 | $47.31 |
| Margin of safety | -101% | -1899% |
| Leak Score | 44/100 (10/12) | 41/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $419.6B | $84.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.9% | 11.6% |
| Operating margin | 25.2% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | 20.9% | -230.1% |
| Return on equity | 27.3% | -240.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| P/E | 32.0x | — |
| Forward P/E | 19.2x | 27.9x |
| P/B | 8.3x | 18.0x |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | — |