Copa Holdings SA (CPA) is slightly overvalued and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UAL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +4%, against -19% for CPA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
7.0x EV/EBITDAR, with aircraft leases counted as debt, values the shares at $113.30; the price of $135.13 is 19% above that value.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
7.0x EV/EBITDAR, with aircraft leases counted as debt, values the shares at $119.98; the price of $115.21 is 4% below that value.
Leak Score 45/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CPA | UAL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $135.13 | $115.21 |
| Intrinsic value | $113.30 | $119.98 |
| Margin of safety | -19% | +4% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 45/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $5.6B | $37.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 35.2% | 30.9% |
| Operating margin | 19.4% | 6.8% |
| Net margin | 15.7% | 5.6% |
| Return on equity | 23.1% | 23.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.89 | 2.02 |
| P/E | 8.9x | 10.8x |
| Forward P/E | 7.0x | 7.8x |
| P/B | 1.9x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 5.2% | — |