Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) is overvalued and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. UNP is the closer of the two: -31%, against -41% for CP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $62.32; the price of $87.99 is 41% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $209.54; the price of $274.41 is 31% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | CP | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $87.99 | $274.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $62.32 | $209.54 |
| Margin of safety | -41% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $77.4B | $163.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.4% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 37.1% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 25.0% | 28.9% |
| Return on equity | 8.4% | 39.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.54 | 1.51 |
| P/E | 28.3x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 20.6x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 2.4x | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 2.0% |